FX Daily: Rare earth exports now the lightning rod for trade

FX Daily: Rare Earth Exports Now the Lightning Rod for Trade

China's rare earth export controls will be a key determinant of risk appetite over the next four weeks.

FX markets are reasonably calm as attention builds on China's export controls on rare earths. The decision to impose such controls has clearly touched a nerve in the US and across G7 nations.

The ability or failure to get those controls negotiated away will be one of the hottest topics for financial markets over the next four weeks

According to the Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE, the dollar is a little softer as short-dated US rates sit at their lows for the year.

Last night's release of the Fed's Beige Book suggests the Fed will have enough evidence to cut rates at the end of the month – even if official data releases remain suspended because of the government shutdown.

Betting markets expect the government to remain closed into November, with US-China relations being the hottest topic for financial markets right now, ahead of some key dates.

Author's summary: Rare earth exports impact trade relations.

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ING Think ING Think — 2025-10-16

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